Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Another Tuesday in March

Author's Note: I feel it necessary to say, at the outset, that my analysis should be read as distinct from my personal opinion. If I write something in this post that offends, take a deep breath, relax, and realize that my view of what is preferable resides in a different state from the one in which America currently finds itself.

So the results from super Tuesday has come rolling in, and it would appear that Hillary and the Don are prohibitive front runners for their respective party nominations. (citations not needed, you, dear reader, can use google if need be.)

These results are what they are, and I think they don't need much comment.

If we assume the Don and Hillary will take stages at their nominating conventions and accept the status as party standard bearer, the next question asks itself: who wins in November?

My intuition, based partly on this poll, as well as this poll of Hillary's favorability rating compared with this poll of the Don, cross-referenced with this poll reflecting higher GOP voter turnout in early primaries, suggests that the Democrats will find themselves digging out of a hole in November to catch up with the Don.

In the end, I think Hillary might (though probably won't) win the popular vote by a percentage point (as indicated by the Quinnipiac poll cited earlier, her national lead over the Don is well within the margin of error). She will probably lose the electoral college vote, based on this nice long list of battleground state polls (among other polling data). Note that Hillary consistently polls poorly against a host of Republican candidates, even in supposedly safe Democratic-leaning states like Michigan.

I should also add that, in addition to Hillary's poor poll numbers versus various Republican candidates, she boasts an extra problem going into November. She, like Jeb!, Rubio, Kaisch, et al... represents the Establishment. Not just of her party, but of the network of wealthy donors and party operatives that infest Washington DC and New York City. (citations can be provided if needed)

In most other election years, this would not constitute much of a problem. Except, this is not a normal election year. Thanks to decades of poor economic choices by said establishment, the average American, wether they count themselves among the wage class or salary class, faces an economic future that is, at best, semi feudal. To whom, or what ideas, do people typically turn when the going gets tough? The answer is an admittedly mixed bag, but you, dear reader, can dust up on your wold history starting with the following dates; 1989, 1933, 1917, 1861, 1857, 1850, 1789, 1775...

My analysis of the results and current polls should be taken with a grain of salt, not just because I'm an armchair quarterback. Between now and November we can expect a couple of factors to influence the race; the worsening economic crisis in China, the collapse of the shale oil fracking bubble, the ongoing FBI investigation of Hillary's emails, the ongoing court cases surrounding Trump University, the interminable-yet-somehow-ineffectual 'targeted' bombing of various Middle-eastern countries by the United States, to effect the presidential race.

I suppose I should end where I began; read my analysis as distinct from this author's personal opinion. I try to remain objective.